Статья «Нечёткая модель экономической оценки экологического ущерба»

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Саратовский государственный социально-экономический университет
Кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры прикладной математики и информатики

Saratov State Socio-Economic University
PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science

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В работе рассмотрен вопрос отбора лингвистических переменных для построения нечёткой модели экономической оценки экологического ущерба. Приведено обоснование названий переменных, их термов, а также функций принадлежности. В работе построена база знаний и рассмотрен пример оценки экологического ущерба на основе разработанной модели.

In the article the indistinct model of estimation of ecological damage is presented. In the given model there is an association of three aspects of an ecological damage, namely a damage to health of people, a damage to property and a damage to environment, by means of introduction of linguistic variables characterizing all parties of a damage. Levels of air, water and soil pollution are considered as these variables in model. A whole indistinct estimated model presented in the paper is based on the general scheme of a logic conclusion: linguistic variables, indistinct rules, a conclusion. The source of indistinct rules is made on the basis of techniques developed for the definition of comfortable life conditions, and also techniques of the definition of damage to property and represents the base of predicate rules in the form of "If Х is А then Y is B". Thirds part of the work is a model approbation on a concrete example of ground area and the enterprise located on it. As a result of indistinct model operation the cost of elimination of an ecological damage from the enterprise is defined. In the author's opinion the indistinct modeling in economic estimation of an ecological damage allows to consider indicators of ecological pressure depending on an enterprise activity. On the one hand, such approach is characterized as connection with types of production and consumption and with intensity of pollution (intensity of resources usage). From the other hand, the constructed indistinct model describes an ecological damage as an amount of damage caused in different aspects people's life. The model can be easily added by new indicators of pollution (linguistic variables) and new schemes of pollution (indistinct rules of conclusion).

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Введение Проблема ограниченности…

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Нечёткое моделирование
лингвистические переменные и база знаний
экономическая оценка
экологический ущерб

Fuzzy modeling
linguistic variables and knowledge base
economic estimation
ecological damage